Saturday, March 31, 2012

Mathematical Foundations of V&V Pre-pub NAS Report

A while back I mentioned an interesting looking study on the Mathematical Foundations of Validation, Verification and Uncertainty Quantification. I was just alerted to the pre-publication version available on the National Academies Press site.

Section 2.10 presents a case study for applying VV&UQ methods to climate models. The introductory paragraph of that section reads,

The previous discussion noted that uncertainty is pervasive in models of real-world phenomena, and climate models are no exception. In this case study, the committee is not judging the validity or results of any of the existing climate models, nor is it minimining the successes of climate modeling. The intent is only to discuss how VVUQ methods in these models can be used to improve the reliability of the predictions that they yield and provide a much more complete picture of this crucial scientific arena.

As noted in the front-matter, since this is a pre-print it is still subject to editorial revision.


  1. Lots of the folks in the Acknowledgments section of this report were at the NDV&V workshop. We talked a bit (a little bit, because everyone was trying very hard to be polite) about climate models and how VV&UQ was being done (or not). Even had one presentation from a climate modeler; the response was polite, and he acknowledged the limitations of what has been done to date in the field as far as VV&UQ.

    BTW George, I noticed that comments on your site are restricted now; problems with spam?

  2. I found this last bullet from the conclusion slide ("VUQ Risks and Challenges") of a VVUQ presentation pretty interesting:
    * Social: perception that VUQ is adversarial
    ** Decision-makers require a different level of evidence of correctness than scientific peers